Forecast Distribution

• The distribution plot shows the range of possible outcomes for the Salient forecast. Depending on the model selected, you may see additional distribution curves, allowing you to compare Salient’s forecast to other models from NOAA/ECMWF and climatological forecasts.
• The distribution curves show the sharpness of the forecast, indicating higher confidence about the range. You can visually see whether the Salient forecast and other government and climatology forecasts converge or diverge from one another.

Figure 1: The gray curve shows Salient’s proprietary 40 year climatology forecast for temperature. The Salient forecast (blue) predicts that temperatures will range from -1 C to a median above normal temperature within a narrow range compared to ECMWF SEAS5 (purple) and . The arrowhead symbols along the x-axis shows the medians of each forecast and the observed value from ERA5 Reanalysis (if you are viewing a past forecast).

If you are viewing an anomaly, there are multiple reference periods available for calculating the anomaly (Salient climatology, 30-, 10, and 5-year norm). The selected reference period is appended to the x-axis label.

Above-Below-Near Normal %

The Above-Below-Near Normal %” chart shows the probability of being above, below, or near normal relative to Salient’s climatology across multiple models. This chart shows whether models converge or diverge in their predictions of being in one of the three terciles. This alternative view of Forecast Distribution is available from the Forecast tab when the field is “Above-Below-Near Normal %”.

Figure 2: Above

v2/forecast distribution

https://api.salientpredictions.com/v2/documentation/api/#/Forecasts/forecast_distribution